There’s another way to look at ‘doom and gloom’

On every news medium we are reminded of the carnage in global markets. Banks are collapsing, governments are making epic financial contributions to the private and public sector and job cuts are increasing. Commercial and personal financing is harder to source and the amount and terms somewhat sharp compared to the last few years. Confidence is low and inflationary pressures have been driving up energy and food prices. Businesses are naturally concerned about surviving and the next few years are clearly not going to be an easy ride.

Most all of our clients – from hotels and casinos to bars and restaurants, are challenged like everyone else. The economic reality is inescapable. However whilst doom and gloom may be the flavor of the month, and for many months to come, that is not the only thing we see. Arguably, a recessionary environment can provide a platform for innovation and economic growth through entrepreneurialism and creative thinking and we encourage our clients to take novel approaches to countering the downturn.

We are all suffering. Companies will continue to suffer and the insolvency practitioners are clearly going to be kept busy for much of 2010. People are spending less and selectively as disposable income is depleted or conserved in most economic groups. A difficult economic climate requires considerable ingenuity and the ability to look at things differently. And in looking at things differently, the reality is that there are many opportunities out there – opportunities not just for new business but also to improve existing businesses. When things are at their most difficult, you cannot just maintain – by doing that, you’ll in fact move backwards – you have to grow.

Along with a long list of sectors taking a beating, the world of hospitality and leisure is suffering. Bankers are calling in loans, rents negotiated in the ‘good times’ can be stifling and cash flow is constantly under pressure.

With thousands of sites standing empty, landlords and business owners must contemplate other sources of revenue generation to counter their existing challenges. What can they do in this climate if there are less customers, no customers, low spending customers or a business with a model that is currently untenable? Look at your stock, your financials, your customer base, your payroll and your marketing. Look at your margins – in your overall business all the way down to individual services and products. Take this opportunity to look at what makes you money, what draws in the customers and what is essential to the underlying business to ensure that when times improve, you have the infrastructure and team in place to handle that. At times, make tough decisions because you need to be lean to operate in this climate.

The message we give to our clients is be cautious but don’t be inward and conservative. Look outward and look differently at your business model, at your job remit and/or your skills and work hard to seek out where the prospect lies.

There cannot be any “sacred cows” or unchangeable tenements of your business, you have to look and re-look at all aspects of the way things are done within your business. Whether it’s redefining your customer, your product, your delivery method and or your staff, you’ve got to make the changes that make you undeniably viable; you cannot rest on past results or simply what’s worked for years. The manifest of “Doom & Gloom” is not a given and in fact is only a reality if you allow your business to be stagnant and ignore the need to constantly evolve when times are toughest.

 

OnSite Consulting is a nationwide hospitality and restaurant consulting company to the casino, hotel & restaurant market. Providing immediate solutions for sites seeking turnaround, insolvency and concept repositioning. www.onsiteconsulting.com

 

 

 

When completing a casino cage audit, you are normally required through REGS and MIGS to undertake certain tasks several times a day, making sure that every cent is accounted for. Employees are held firmly responsible and have to undergo background checks, licensing and 24/7 surveillance. Reports are sent out to be audited, the process is repeated every few hours and there is not a second that the accounting department responsible for the cage do not know exactly how much is in the cage in both cash and chips.

Multimillion dollar software tracks money and generates reports, shows audit failures and identifies system weaknesses. A casino will not open without gaming management be it a Japanese replica or the Ballys cream of crop. Not a penny moves without a form and a thing and a process.

Civilian vendors cannot even think of being able to look inside the cage without the granting of specific permissions and security and without being thoroughly vetted. Furthermore, if an audit shows a $90 short during a cashiers shift, there are rigorous protocols that remove that employee from the workplace, with he or she being suspended pending investigation.

The cashier’s float was only $25,000 so why, when a chef has an inventory of the same amount – or more realistically stock with a value of millions – are the same protocols not applied? A refrigerated produce order with a wholesale purchase value of $25,000 is worth $100,000 when sold – add margins, the cost of preparing the food, the notional cost and marketing of attracting a guest to eat at the venue – or $0 in three days when its lifespan is complete and the stock has to be thrown away. We therefore ask the important question of ‘why are the perishable supplies in your food & beverage inventory not treated with the same respect?’

The reason is because it is not a legal and regulated requirement: Indeed to many, food is an annoyance or necessary evil to satisfy the gaming customers. Often operated and managed by under qualified staff and those who do not think of the inventory as a currency, venue management are not treating this valuable stock as they ought to.

The Casino Floor has multimillion dollar software given the rate and speed of transactions and the automation of the gaming process. More often than not, Food and Beverage has excel spreadsheets at best. This is not about software. In these cases, software is mostly purchased as a solution to a problem when the problem is actually that very person formulating the solution. You cannot purchase food cost control, only people can. Software just cuts the man hours down and translates the data into more readable fashion for cross analysis.

Only in the last few years have many properties recognized the ability and indeed necessity for strong F&B presence to provide a significant new revenue stream not only from existing players but also the new customers who come purely for the F&B options. This therefore means there is also a new marketing benefit realized, however the value of strong F&B is not the purpose of this article. This article is focused on how the value of inventory got lost ‘somewhere’. All too often we walk into mega million dollar sites who use MBWA (management by walking around), P&L and some spreadsheets to analyze their F&B when the converse should apply. The person running the F&B needs the analysis to run that department efficiently.

Our first message to management in these cases is to rethink how this valuable asset is handled and fast. Inventory is currency just like cash and should be treated as such. It should not be laying around in various storerooms, it should not be accessible to ‘just anybody’ and it certainly should have tracking. Unfortunately this is one of the biggest challenges we face in an F&B context: Getting someone to take a can of peas seriously, especially when they go through a palette a week. We genuinely don’t see the difference between a walk-in freezer and a safe. This overall shift in mindset is the largest hurdle to overcome but one that pays constant dividends when applied. Getting people to see it our way and recognize the weaknesses in the procedures in place is one of our key tasks in these situations.

We expect to swing the costs of goods downwards by about 7-12% of total gross program sales. So when our prospective customers ask us how we are so confident in our ability to make change without interrogating the numbers further, it usually comes back to us to see if F&B is controlled by MBWA. Generally, however, a problem in F&B is an indicator of a wider problem within the company as someone should have addressed this issue, fixed the issue or at least understood that at times, there is value in preferring $500 in guaranteed beef sales than $500 in cash.

Let’s not forget, however, the always tightly controlled liquor cage with keys, cameras and par systems for an inventory of $6,500 behind a bar. Managers often do what is at best common practice and at worst, easy …. and ignore the rest. Liquor being the more stolen commodity is a myth because no one knows about the food being stolen either through waste, bad portions or theft. How could they with no accountability or stock management in place?

The good news is that the solution is a simple one. Yes the department needs to be stripped and rebuilt, yes new controls and procedures need to be put in place. But there is one department already on site specializing in this for our cash currency. Accounting of course. Who better to protect our inventory currency?

There are many solutions that casinos should undertake but it all starts with Accounting taking control of inventory the second it arrives on the property. Wherever it may be stored it is owned by accounting and its movement into the supply chain should be through the standard purchase orders and audit logs. Two slips of paper and a controllable inventory has been started. From this one can then branch out into the other issues that require close inspection such as whether the site is holding too much inventory, cost analysis, vendor analysis, plate management and so forth …. but you must start at the root of the problem and move from there.

With inventory sitting in storage and now ultimately accountable to or controlled by an accounting department the process is clear, inventory and par maintenance. By using perpetual inventory as opposed to static, the par can be determined quickly as each unit has a “days on shelf” associated to it. More importantly, the property can now drill down on its costs and its uses to the individual purchased unit which is a key indicator of profitability and efficiency.

With these changes made, you now have an F&B department which need only focus on the cost of goods for the product they have transferred out of storage allowing for a much more isolated process and facilitating the all important checks and balances. This is a real cost system which gives your chef the chance to make an impact and be able to complete his job. The minute it leaves storage, accounting relinquishes responsibility for stock and the chef or section head is responsible.

You have now successfully changed the entire structure of your F&B department. Purchasing is now taking orders on product demand from accounting, receiving is now an accounting function, the chef is focused on food and managing the food offering in the kitchen rather than in the storage and each department has a more focused responsibility in an area they are most skilled.

One small tip – limit access to storage!!

OnSite Consulting is a nationwide hospitality and restaurant consulting company to the casino, hotel & restaurant market. Providing immediate solutions for sites seeking turnaround, insolvency and concept repositioning. www.onsiteconsulting.com

When the struggle to stay in business comes down to the landlord.
From an unlawful detainer action to a 5 day pay or quit or simply an inability to meet your obligations, the strategy for finding a solution remains the same.

One of the issues we regularly come into contact with in our capacity as turnaround consultants for insolvent or underperforming units are our clients lease obligations. Typically executed during the “good times”, they have often proved to be an onerous burden on struggling units and when cash flow is tight and a business needs to be lean, the ability to renegotiate these leases is often the ‘make or break’ factor.

For a landlord to serve a 3 or 5 day notice to pay or quit, it may mean that talks to date have failed (or perhaps not occurred) and at this point the landlord is making it abundantly clear that they are willing to risk having a vacant property rather than keeping you as a tenant. Essentially, the landlord is looking to stop the bleeding as he or she does not have faith in your ability to remain as a tenant. At other times, the notice may merely be a strategic move to force you to repay some of the monies owing with no genuine intention of actually evicting you. Either way, receiving a ‘pay or quit’ is a nasty feeling for an operator and creates fear and insecurity for the business. As if cash flow was not tight enough already you now need to retain counsel.

Whilst we are not lawyers we do, however, work closely with our client’s legal team in defining a strategy that makes the most sense under the circumstances and provides the business with the maximum leverage. Our involvement is typically based on the competency of counsel as well as the operator’s ability to see the big picture. Our advice is ‘always get the best advice’. If you need legal advice, don’t use your local firm simply because you know them. Find out what they have done in your sector and ensure you are using someone with the right experience because good advice always pays its way, especially when dealing with something like an Unlawful Detainer – which has very little “appeal” process if you are on the wrong side of the judge’s decision.

Whilst OnSite can make a significant impact on the non fixed costs and provide drastic savings, increased operational profitability and streamlining the concept, if the rental amount (typically 7% to 10% of gross sales) is unsustainable, then the value in trying to save the business may be flawed from the day we arrive.
In a majority of recent cases we have been involved in and where we have engaged with landlords in cases of crippling rent, landlords have often been willing to make a number of concessions when presented with a fair option. It is critical not to ask the landlord to reduce the rent in order to offset operator error or concept failure – if you are running your business badly it is neither their problem nor their responsabillity to subsidise you. This is one area where our appointment provides immediate confidence and assistance to the business: We immediately step in to confirm that the operations are being streamlined and efficiencies are being introduced.

An operator who has made significant errors but successfully repositioned the concept and provided a viable and profitable model still has significant leverage because he or she has identified the problem and found a solution. Typically, landlords recognize the current economic challenges that their tenants face and to the extent that they have a good relationship with their tenant, a paying tenant is a better proposition than a vacant, non rent producing unit. You must engage with your landlord in a professional way as simply ignoring the situation will only make matters worse and enrage the already frustrated owner of your site.

When either handling a pay or quit, an unlawful detainer action or even thinking it may be time to attempt to renegotiate with your landlord, you must remember that as a paying tenant, despite your reservations, you certainly have leverage. You should offer a value proposition that makes sense, with financial payments you can meet in a timely fashion and that work both in the short and long term plans.

In all instances, we suggest the landlord be treated as a partner and where available, make modifications to the lease and rental amounts to provide for a base plus gross volume percentage. This would allow, in some instances, for an immediate reduction in the base but also provide the landlord with additional revenue potential based on the expectation that business will grow and ultimately, get back to its pre-recession top line revenues. This will only happen, however, when you can provide absolute data on your business and demonstrate its ability to provide the landlord with this upside.

We have clients where their landlords have offered rent reductions without it being offset into a loan for payback in the future, whilst others have required the operator to personally guarantee the value of the offset. Arguably this creates an unfair obligation and high level of personal exposure for the tenant, however in circumstances where the rent must be reduced to secure the future of the business, operators have to make tough decisions and compromise in areas they would typically consider off limits if they want a second chance on an existing rental contract.

When proposing a change to a landlord, it must be just that – a proposal. It cannot be neither theoretical or hypothetical nor can it be a napkin with some ideas scribbled on it. The operator is pitching his or her landlord to not only receive a reduced rent but also to have faith in the future of the business: This is a lot to ask. This pressure forces an operator to treat their business as a business and create the required cash flow statements and forecasts, to define a cash model that shows a number of different options to the landlord for them to be made whole and exactly how the tenant expects to realize that. You are pitching to your landlord and should make every possible effort to do so in the most professional way.

If your P&L shows a monthly loss, presenting a landlord with a burden you cannot meet and which you are likely to breach is much the same as saying you intend to breach it. You are not being honest and the landlord will spot this and have no faith in what you are proposing. On the assumption that the model will be redefined and the unit is either moving to, trending towards or is profitable, step one has been completed. A practical landlord has less reason to remove a profitable tenant if an equitable deal can be made and a clear path to get there can be defined.

With the P&L showing or trending towards profitability and the creation of cash flow allocations, forecasts and debt amortization tables, you should now be able to show your ability to manage the historic debt obligations you have and the shelf life on those. For most facilities, the P&L is not the problem – rather it is the cash flow that provides the greatest challenge. The ability (or lack thereof) to service the debt with the profits or available cash flow the unit generates is typically the biggest issue in turnaround business plans. This is immediately exasperated by the issuance of a landlord Pay or Quit notice, as lenders will now not be willing to lend money in such an unsettling environment.

This requirement to have a demonstrable business case also ties in to one of the important operational aspects of a business. You must understand your numbers and you cash flow because what it all comes down to is understanding your data and using the information the data provides to drive your business decisions. If you are running a business where you cannot see, down to minute detail, everything from your stock levels to your net margin on dishes served, then you are then running a business that is not worthy of a landlord workout. This financial information and the ability to scrutinize it is one of the keys to restoring profitability.

For our clients and now hopefully for you, with the creation and utilization of rolling cash flow forecasts showing your ability to manage your obligations, you are now able to create a number of options for your landlord or for that matter, any creditor. You can demonstrate with authority and confidence exactly how you intend to pay debts based on what you realistically earn and can pay. Every creditor would prefer to know what you can pay and will pay regularly rather than what you would like to pay but may not be able to with regularity. The intent to breach a deal or regular breaches of financial commitments made only compounds and exacerbates the problem and the relationship – and creates difficulty trying to structure a new deal.

In proposing to a landlord that an adjustment to the rent structure can be viable, it is important and crucial that the immediate recent cash flow shows that whatever is proposed can actually work now, not based on hypothetical projections of increased revenue.

It is also important to note that as a tenant, you should not be trying to salvage the situation if you are not confident that through renewed efforts and a workable landlord you can increase sales and improve the bottom line. This cannot be about working out a deal just to survive because that alone will certainly not incentivize the landlord to renegotiate.

While there are many different interpretations and variations, there are essentially two options for a reworked lease, “less now, more later” or “base plus gross percentage”.

The “less now, more later” option asks for the landlord to decrease the monthly rentin the short term but increasing the rent in the medium to long term. Less cash is therefore required ‘now’ when the business is in trouble but when it is thriving once again, the landlord can claw back rent lost in earlier years with higher income. This option provides for a set increase and is a less riskier option for the landlord but also negates any large reward for the landlords renewed faith and risk.

The “base plus gross percentage” model lets the landlord accept a lower base rental amount but participate in a percentage of gross revenue (important to note that this is always gross and not net revenue). There are essentially two different types of percentage rent, the most common being based on receiving a percentage of sales benchmarked against a particular target (eg, $2k base and 6% of gross revenue over $500k). The other practical option is a percentage of total revenue but guaranteed with a base amount (eg, 3% of gross sales, base of $3k). This is riskier for the landlord but has the attraction of a much more lucrative upside.

In some instances, however, the landlord is no longer willing to wait for rent or strike a deal and under those circumstances, a pay or quit is served. For many struggling venues, this is the final nail in the coffin and as if it could not get any worse, they now have to retain an attorney and use the few pennies left in the bank for legal service rather than operational or debt service.

In our experience, however, this onerous and unpleasant process provides a number of theoretical upside opportunities for both the landlord and tenant. If the process is managed appropriately, it can equally be a fresh start for the business as the decision makers are finally forced to make tough decisions that have likely been put off (perhaps in the hope they will disappear).

Upon being served, now knowing the landlord is willing to go ‘all the way’, the first step is to ask for an extension. This gives you all time to arrange to meet for a frank and open discussion (presuming the option is there) and with everyone’s chips on the table, it allows a thorough discussion as to whether there is a deal to be done. Whilst it is common to believe the landlord is in the driving seat, this is not always the case. If your financial modeling proves your ability as a tenant, the landlord is not looking for a vacant unit and financial exposure for the sake of it and would likely rather not restart the process of finding a new tenant. Equally, if no deal is to be found, you will have sufficient time to contemplate your legal position and take advice as opposed to making a rushed and insufficiently thought out decision.

This article is not about defenses to an unlawful detainer in an effort to find the landlord at fault with a defective service nor is this a step by step guide to the legal options available when responding (answer, demurrer or motion to quash) to such a motion. Furthermore, this is also not an article seeking to find potential covenant breach or retaliatory evictions. There are hundreds of options to drag out, extend and respond to a UD that your counsel can advise on. This is about the options or remedies that you may wish to explore if your concept is viable and you can “make it work” both on paper and in practical terms. This is about turning around your business and dealing with the issue of burdensome rent whilst also nursing your unit back to full health.

Understanding what has to happen and the legal strategy your business should take is unique to each situation. In some instances, the balance outstanding along with other debts may make a bankruptcy with intention of assuming the lease a viable option. In other instances, performing an Assignment for the benefit of Creditors (ABC) with your landlord allowing the debt to rollover to the new entity might be a potential solution.

At other times, it is just a matter of legal defense and starting the process of ensuring your lease is upheld. As an operator your entire business is tied to the lease and whilst there may be some assets (FFE, Liquor license and other items) the only real asset is the lease.

For clients who have run into difficulty with their lease obligations based on year on year and month on month revenue decline, we have seen successful use of California’s “hardship defense”. The value of this defense is that the entire concept of an unlawful detainer is the landlord asking for vacation of the property as an equitable remedy, grounded in fairness. If the landlord is asking the Court to act fairly and return the property then the court must provide you, by default, with that same level of fairness.

If you are experiencing this month on month decline in your business after you entered into a commercial agreement with specific revenue expectations you have not been able to meet – and where you have not been able to meet those due to the economic climate – then this hardship defense has merit. You did not enter into the agreement on false premise nor did you seek to mislead the landlord in committing to pay this rental amount because as an operator, the business case seemed viable. In this climate where business owners are struggling to keep their doors open, the hardship defense is very relevant and one you should turn your attention to and, where relevant, discuss it with your attorney.

This legal process of eviction is terrifying because it does not deal with overdue collections and summary judgments: Instead, the entire business is at risk. Think laterally and contemplate how you can involve your landlord to your mutual benefit because both parties stand to gain from finding a solution in these circumstances.